Chelsey Leffet

Consulting Experience

Managing Director Chelsey Leffet is both the leader of the HVS Washington, D.C. Consulting & Valuation office and the Director of the HVS Northeast region. Since joining HVS, Chelsey has consulted on hotels of all asset classes and development stages throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including several hostel lodging assets. Chelsey’s particular focus is the Washington, D.C. market, and she has also done considerable work in the suburbs of D.C., Baltimore, and Hampton Roads, including Williamsburg, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach. Some examples of her extensive experience are listed below.

• Chelsey’s notable luxury and upscale Washington, D.C. engagements include the following:
  • Willard InterContinental D.C.
  • The Hay-Adams
  • Park Hyatt Washington D.C.
  • Mandarin Oriental Washington D.C.
  • Latham Hotel Georgetown
  • W Washington D.C.
  • St. Regis Washington, D.C.

• During her time at HVS, Chelsey has used her knowledge gained during assignments, networking, and other research to publish articles on the dynamics of the most prominent Mid-Atlantic hotel markets. She has also written on industry topics such as per-diem rate changes and the American Hotel & Lodging Association’s Legislative Summit, as well as newsworthy events such as Amazon’s HQ2 plans for Northern Virginia.

• Chelsey’s keen insight into the Washington, D.C. lodging market is further developed by her involvement in local organizations. She helps lead and organize networking and educational events for the Washington, D.C.-based Hospitality Real Estate Society (HRES), serves on the board of the ILHA’s Northeast Chapter, and participates in the annual Bisnow Lodging Investment Summit (BLIS East) in D.C. Please contact Chelsey for more information about any of these organizations or to book her to speak at a local event.

Testimonials

"Chelsey and her team at HVS far exceeded all expectations of me and my partners. By selecting HVS to perform and issue our feasibility study on a commercial construction project, including a proposed 80-key hospitality asset, our credibility increased. The responsive and professional understanding of the industry strengthened our ability to present findings to investors, lenders and other project partners. I would recommend their services first to any contact I may interact with in our industry." – Scott Hursong, Managing Member,
Cranberry Real Estate LLC

"HVS has consistently provided me and my team with a quality product while also meeting or exceeding the timelines we agreed to." – Chad Hale, Scotiabank

"Having worked with Kathy Conroy for over two decades, both she and her colleagues at HVS never cease to amaze me with their insight and intimate market knowledge. Our ability to interact with such a highly qualified team helps us be better in our site selection and understanding market dynamics." – Mr. Rogers, Floridays Development

Employment History

August 2012 – Present
HVS 
Washington, DC

August 2011 – May 2012
ARAMARK Higher Education
Greenville, NC

May 2011 – August 2011
Lighthouse Resort Services
Corolla, NC

May 2010 – August 2010
Columbus Inn Restaurant
Wilmington, DE

May 2009 – August 2009
The Bellmoor Inn & Spa
Rehoboth Beach, Delaware

Education

EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY
Master of Business Administration

EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY
Bachelor of Science, Hospitality Management

Other Specialized Training Classes Completed:
Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice
Basic Appraisal Procedures
Basic Appraisal Principles
General Appraiser Income Approach (Parts I and II)
General Appraiser Market Analysis and HBU
General Appraiser Report Writing and Case Studies
General Appraiser Sales Comparison Approach
General Appraiser Site Valuation and Cost Approach
Statistics, Modeling and Finance
Delaware Laws and Regulations for Appraisers
Supervisor Trainee Class
Advanced Income
Quantitative Analysis
Expert Witness for Commercial Appraisers
Commercial Appraisal Review
Advanced Market Analysis & HBU
General Demonstration Report Writing
Advanced Concepts and Case Studies
Capstone – Demo Report
Basic Hotel Appraising – Limited-Service Hotels
Advanced Hotel Appraising - Full-Service Hotels
Rates and Ratios: Making Sense of GIMs, OARs, and DCF
Basics of Expert Witness
WV Law
Appraisal of Owner-Occupied Commercial Properties
Appraisal of Land Subject to Ground Lease
Comparative Analysis
Analyzing Operating Expenses
Forecasting Revenue
Appraiser's Guide to Expert Witnessing
Biennial USPAP Updates

Hotels Evaluated

Sample List for Illustrative Purposes

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
Portfolio of 18 Full-Service Hotels, Various Locations
24 Extended Stay America Hotels, Maryland and Virginia
Portfolio of 3 InTown Suites Properties, North and South Carolina
 
ARIZONA
Hampton Inn Phoenix Chandler, Chandler
Motel 6, Douglas
Motel 6, Flagstaff
Motel 6 Flagstaff Butler Avenue, Flagstaff
Motel 6 Flagstaff West Woodlands, Flagstaff
Motel 6 Kingman East, Kingman
Motel 6 Kingman West, Kingman
Motel 6, Nogales
Cambria Hotel Downtown Phoenix Convention Center, Phoenix
Motel 6, Prescott
Red Roof Inn Phoenix Airport, Tempe
Motel 6 Tucson Congress Street, Tucson
Motel 6 Tucson North, Tucson
Studio 6 Tucson Irvington Road, Tucson
Motel 6 Yuma East, Yuma
 
CALIFORNIA
Hyatt Place Sacramento Rancho Cordova, Rancho Cordova
 
CONNECTICUT
Quality Inn, Cromwell
Econo Lodge, Groton
Hampton Inn, Meriden
DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel, Norwalk
Hilltop Inn & Suites, North Stonington
 
DELAWARE
Heritage Inn & Suites Rehoboth Beach, Lewes
Hilton Wilmington Christiana, Newark
Proposed Hampton Inn, Wilmington
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Wilmington
 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
ARC The Hotel
Capital Hilton
Comfort Inn Downtown Convention Center
Courtyard by Marriott Washington D.C. U.S. Capitol
DoubleTree by Hilton
Embassy Suites Chevy Chase
George Washington University Inn
Hamilton Crowne Plaza Washington
Hamilton Hotel Washington District Columbia
Hay-Adams Hotel
HighRoad Hostel DC
Hilton National Mall
Hyatt Place E-Street
Hyatt Place Washington DC/National Mall
L'Enfant Plaza Washington D.C.
Liaison Capitol Hill
Loews Madison Hotel
Mandarin Oriental Washington
Marriott Courtyard Hotel
Marriott Washington Wardman Park
Motel 6
Park Hyatt Washington
Proposed AC Hotel by Marriott
Proposed Canopy Hotel
Proposed Embassy Suites
Proposed Holiday Inn Express Washington
Proposed Hotel - Armed Forces Retirement Home
Proposed Hyatt House
Proposed InterContinental Hotel
Proposed Latham Hotel Georgetown
Proposed Maison Kesh Hotel
Proposed Thompson Hotel
Renaissance Dupont Circle District of Columbia
Residence Inn by Marriott Washington D.C. Vermont Avenue
River Inn
Sofitel Washington DC Lafayette Square
St. Regis Washington District Columbia
W Hotel Washington D.C.
Washington Hilton
Washington Marriott Georgetown
Willard InterContinental Washington
Wink Washington D.C.
 
FLORIDA
Proposed Compass Hotel, Harbor Isles
Marriott Marquis World Center, Miami
Proposed Marriott Marquis, Miami
Sheraton Tampa East, Tampa
 
HAWAII
DoubleTree Naniloa Hotel, Hilo
 
ILLINOIS
Best Western, Burbank
Holiday Inn Express, Lansing
Holiday Inn Express, Schaumburg
 
INDIANA
Courtyard by Marriott, Bloomington
Best Western, Hammond
Huntington Inn, Huntington
Comfort Suites, South Bend
 
MARYLAND
Red Roof Inn, Aberdeen
DoubleTree by Hilton Annapolis, Annapolis
Marriott Annapolis Waterfront, Annapolis
Marriott Marquis World Center, Annapolis
Hampton Inn Downtown, Baltimore
Home2 Suites by Hilton Baltimore Downtown, Baltimore
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, Baltimore
Radisson Hotel Baltimore Downtown Inner Harbor, Baltimore
RL Baltimore Inner Harbor, Baltimore
Comfort Inn, Beltsville
Proposed Wingate by Wyndham, Beltsville
Sheraton College Park North Hotel, Beltsville
Hyatt Regency, Bethesda
La Quinta Inn & Suites, California
Courtyard by Marriott Bethesda Chevy Chase, Chevy Chase
Comfort Inn, Clinton
Hilton Garden Inn Columbia, Columbia
Courtyard by Marriott Frederick, Frederick
Homewood Suites by Hilton, Frederick
Proposed Home2 Suites by Hilton Frederick, Frederick
Motel 6, Gaithersburg
Crowne Plaza Greenbelt Washington DC, Greenbelt
Residence Inn by Marriott, Greenbelt
Hampton Inn & Suites Arundel Mills, Hanover
Live! Lofts, Hanover
Residence Inn by Marriott Arundel Mills BWI Airport, Hanover
Residence Inn by Marriott, Hunt Valley
Holiday Inn Express, La Plata
Holiday Inn Express & Suites I-95 Capitol Beltway Largo, Largo
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Laurel
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites, Laurel
Motel 6, Laurel
SpringHill Suites by Marriott Baltimore BWI Airport, Linthicum
Proposed Hyatt House Linthicum Heights, Linthicum Heights
Proposed Aviation Station Hotel, Middle River
Proposed Hotel, Middle River
Metro Points Hotel, New Carrollton
Holiday Inn Express, Prince Frederick
Days Inn, Salisbury
Courtyard by Marriott Silver Spring North, Silver Spring
Proposed Trade Point Atlantic Hotel, Sparrows Point
Comfort Inn, Towson
Proposed Fairfield Inn Westphalia, Upper Marlboro
Comfort Suites, Waldorf
Country Inn & Suites, Waldorf
Proposed Hotel, White Marsh
 
NEW JERSEY
Proposed Hotel, Asbury Park
Howard Johnson, Bellmawr
Super 8, Bellmawr
Hampton Inn, Blackwood
Days Inn, Bordentown
Brick Motor Inn, Brick
Jetty Motel, Cape May
Madison Beach Club Motel, Cape May
Proposed Hampton Inn, Cranbury
Proposed Best Western Plus, Florence
The Palace Inn, Fords
Motel 6, Galloway
Hampton Inn, Mount Holly
Hilton Garden Inn, Mount Laurel
TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Mount Laurel
Hampton Inn, Nanuet
Hilton Garden Inn, Nanuet
Proposed Homewood Suites, Neptune
Days Inn, Parsippany
Proposed Great Wolf Perryville, Perryville
Proposed Ridgefield Park Hotel, Ridgefield Park
Proposed Rockleigh Hotel, Rockleigh
Hyatt House Parsippany Whippany, Whippany
Calypso Motel, Wildwood
Quebec Motel, Wildwood
Hilton, Woodcliff Lake
 
MISSISSIPPI
Days Inn, Hernando
 
NEBRASKA
Comfort Inn & Suites, Omaha
 
NEW YORK
Riveredge Resort, Alexandria Bay
Capri Whitestone Hotel, Bronx
Sheridan Hotel, Bronx
Comfort Inn, Brooklyn
Hotel Bliss, Brooklyn
Hotel BPM, Brooklyn
Holiday Inn Buffalo Airport, Cheektowaga
Proposed Hotel Cortlandt, Cortlandt
Proposed Hotel Conference Center, Elmont
Flushing Grand Hotel, Flushing
Red Roof Inn, Flushing
Hyatt Regency Long Island, Hauppauge
Holiday Inn L.I City Manhattan View, Long Island City
Monticello Motel, Monticello
Days Inn, Nanuet
King and Grove Hotel, New York City
Beacon Motel, Plattsburg
Best Western, Pompton Plains
Hampton Inn, Poughkeepsie
Holiday Inn Express, Poughkeepsie
Holiday Inn Express Long Island East End, Riverhead
Holiday Inn Express Rochester Greece, Rochester
Holiday Inn Airport, Rochester
Proposed Hotel Indigo, Saratoga Springs
Fairfield Inn, Spring Valley
Proposed Home2 Suites, Syracuse
Best Western, Utica
Best Western New Baltimore Inn, West Coxsackie
Quality Inn, Woodside
 
NORTH CAROLINA
Fairfield Inn & Suites, Cary
Hampton Inn & Suites, Carolina Beach
InTown Suites Matthews Crown Point, Charlotte
Candlewood Suites Durham Research Triangle Park, Durham
Motel 6 Fayetteville NC Fort Bragg Area, Fayetteville
Super 8, Garysburg
Motel 6 Greensboro NC I-40, Greensboro
Studio 6 Greensboro, Greensboro
InTown Suites Kannapolis (YKN) Extended Stay, Kannapolis
Motel 6, Roanoke Rapids
Quality Inn, Washington
 
PENNSYLVANIA
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Altoona
Travelodge by Wyndham, Bedford
Brookville Lodge, Brookville
Fairfield Inn, Chambersburg
Days Inn, Clearfield
Knights Inn, Clearfield
Hilton Garden Inn, Cranberry Township
Home2 Suites by Hilton Pittsburgh Cranberry, Cranberry Township
Residence Inn by Marriott Scranton, Dickson City
Days Inn, East Stroudsburg
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Fort Washington
Heritage Hotel, Lancaster
SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Langhorne
Best Western Inn at Hunt's Landing, Matamoras
Proposed Hampton Inn, Media
Best Western Plus, Middletown
Staybridge Suites, Montgomeryville
Embassy Suites by Hilton Center City, Philadelphia
Hawthorne Suites, Philadelphia
Hotel Monaco, Philadelphia
Proposed AC by Marriott, Philadelphia
Proposed Hyatt Place, Philadelphia
Proposed Fairfield Inn & Suites Pittsburgh Downtown, Pittsburgh
Fairfield by Marriott Scranton, Scranton
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Selinsgrove
Mill Stream Country Inn, Smoketown
Proposed Hyatt Place, State College
Crowne Plaza, Trevose
Radisson Philadelphia Northeast Trevose, Trevose
Proposed TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Washington
Penn Wells Hotel, Wellsboro
Proposed Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Willow Grove
 
SOUTH CAROLINA
InTown Suites Anderson, Anderson
3 Palms Hotel, Myrtle Beach
Hampton Inn Oceanside, Myrtle Beach
 
TENNESSEE
Hilton Nashville Airport, Nashville
 
TEXAS
Candlewood Suites, Texarkana
 
VIRGINIA
Alexandria Monaco, Alexandria
Courtyard by Marriott Pentagon South, Alexandria
Hilton Alexandria Old Town, Alexandria
Holiday Inn Carlyle, Alexandria
Hotel Indigo Old Town Alexandria, Alexandria
Morrison House, Alexandria
Proposed Heron Hotel, Alexandria
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Alexandria
Proposed Hotel, Alexandria
Marriott Key Bridge, Arlington
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott Arlington, Arlington
Proposed Hotel, Arlington
Embassy Suites Dulles North Loudoun, Ashburn
Homewood Suites by Hilton Dulles North Loudoun, Ashburn
Fairfield Inn & Suites Dulles Airport, Chantilly
TownePlace Suites Chantilly Dulles South, Chantilly
Wingate Inn Dulles Airport, Chantilly
Affordable Suites of America Charlottesville, Charlottesville
Courtyard by Marriott Charlottesville North, Charlottesville
Best Western Plus Portsmouth, Chesapeake
Delta Hotels by Marriott Chesapeake Norfolk, Chesapeake
Hilton Garden Inn, Chesapeake
InTown Suites Chesapeake/Greenbrier, Chesapeake
Colonial Beach Inn, Colonial Beach
Quality Inn, Covington
Hampton by Hilton Culpeper, Culpeper
Proposed Hampton Inn & Suites, Culpeper
Hampton Inn Dumfries Quantico, Dumfries
Candlewood Suites, Fairfax
Hilton Garden Inn, Fairfax
Hyatt Fair Lakes, Fairfax
Falls Church Marriott Fairview Park, Falls Church
Westin Tysons Corner, Falls Church
Candlewood Suites, Fredericksburg
Dunning Mills Inn, Fredericksburg
Motel 6, Front Royal
Proposed SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Gainesville
TownePlace Suites by Marriott Richmond, Glen Allen
Comfort Inn, Gloucester
Proposed Hampton Inn Gordonsville, Gordonsville
Best Western Hampton Coliseum Inn, Hampton
InTown Suites, Hampton
Motel 6, Harrisonburg
Candlewood Suites, Herndon
Courtyard Dulles Airport Herndon, Herndon
Embassy Suites Dulles Airport, Herndon
Lansdowne Resort, Leesburg
Motel 6, Lexington
Comfort Suites, Manassas
Proposed Hotel at Farm Brew Live, Manassas
Proposed La Quinta Manassas, Manassas
Wyndham Garden Manassas, Manassas
Proposed Hotel, Manassas Park, Manassas Park
DoubleTree by Hilton McLean Tysons, McLean
InTown Suites Newport News North, Newport News
Econo Lodge Airport, Norfolk
Econo Lodge University, Norfolk
Holiday Inn Norfolk Airport, Norfolk
Motel 6, Norfolk
Sheraton Waterside, Norfolk
SpringHill Suites by Marriott Norfolk Virginia Beach, Norfolk
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Petersburg Fort Lee, Petersburg
Proposed Hotel Reston, Reston
Hilton Richmond Hotel & Spa Short Pump Town Center, Richmond
Hyatt House Richmond West, Richmond
Hyatt Place Richmond Arboretum, Richmond
Red Roof Inn Richmond South, Richmond
Motel 6 Richmond Airport Sandston, Sandston
Hilton, Springfield
Motel 6 Washington DC Southwest Springfield, Springfield
TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Springfield
Candlewood Suites, Sterling
Hyatt House Sterling/Dulles Airport North, Sterling
Suburban Extended Stay, Sterling
Super 8, Tappahannock
Quality Inn, Thornburg
Comfort Inn & Suites Virginia Beach - Norfolk Airport, Virginia Beach
Courtyard by Marriott Virginia Beach Norfolk, Virginia Beach
Crowne Plaza, Virginia Beach
Motel 6, Virginia Beach
Proposed Hotel, Virginia Beach
TownePlace Suites Virginia Beach, Virginia Beach
Embassy Suites, Williamsburg
Great Wolf Lodge, Williamsburg
Hampton Inn & Suites Williamsburg Historic District, Williamsburg
Residence Inn by Marriott, Williamsburg
SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Williamsburg
Proposed Micro Hotel, Winchester
Courtyard by Marriott Potomac Mills Woodbridge, Woodbridge
Fairfield Inn & Suites Potomac Mills Woodbridge, Woodbridge
Proposed Tru by Hilton, Woodbridge
Residence Inn by Marriott Potomac Mills Woodbridge, Woodbridge
Holiday Inn Express, Woodstock
TownePlace Suites Newport News Yorktown, Yorktown
 
WASHINGTON
Best Western, Friday Harbor
Best Western Plus, Moses Lake
 
WEST VIRGINIA
Hilton Garden Inn, Clarksburg
Hampton Inn, Elkins
Hilton Garden Inn, Morgantown

Affiliations

International Luxury Hotel Association, Northeast Chapter – Board Member

Hospitality Real Estate Society (HRES)

Press Coverage

INSPIRE2020 Luxury Hospitality Conference helps hoteliers put heads in beds, 2020

SPOTLIGHT ON Chelsey Leffet, Senior Vice president, HVS, 2020

Webinar Roundup: Insights from Hospitality and Health Tourism, 2020

Key takeaways and insights from the ILHA Webinar Series: "Navigating Today's Hotel Financing & Transaction Environment.", 2020

ILHA Webinar Series on a post-COVID-19 future for luxury hotels, 2020

Amazon's Influence on Northern Virginia's Lodging Market, 2019

My Articles

Recent Trends in Washington, D.C.’s Luxury Hotel Market

Despite a somewhat slow rebound when compared to many other major markets, the Washington, D.C. hotel market, inclusive of the luxury hotels, has experienced significant growth since mid-year 2022, led largely by ADR. The luxury market in D.C. has not seen this amount of change in decades, making it an exciting time for the segment. This article explores the recent luxury hotel performance in Washington, D.C.

• February 2, 2023 By Caroline Dioso , Chelsey Leffet

• Hotel Operations , Development & Construction , Travel & Tourism , Economic Trends and Cycles , COVID-19 , Washington D.C. , District of Columbia , United States , North America

Mergers & Acquisitions

As the economic recovery continues following the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, the current market is making mergers and acquisitions (M&As) more and more attractive to hotel industry players. This article explores the factors contributing to this trend.

• January 28, 2022 By Chelsey Leffet

• Lending , Economic Trends and Cycles , Hotel Companies , United States , North America

COVID-19’s Impact on the Hampton Roads Lodging Market

The Hampton Roads area has historically benefited from strong leisure and tourism demand, government activity at the area’s military facilities, and corporate travel. Since early March 2020, however, the Hampton Roads lodging market has suffered a decline in demand, like most metropolitan areas in the United States, because of the COVID-19 pandemic. How much of an impact has the market experienced, and how quickly can this historically stable market recover?

• May 12, 2021 By Chelsey Leffet

• Hotel Operations , Development & Construction , Travel & Tourism , Economic Trends and Cycles , COVID-19 , Hampton , Virginia , United States , North America , Chesapeake , Franklin , Newport News , Norfolk , Poquoson , Portsmouth , Suffolk , Virginia Beach , Williamsburg

HVS Market Pulse: Washington, D.C. Lodging Market

The Washington, D.C. metropolitan area hotels have been more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic than many other major markets across the United States. Will recent disruptors derail a market typically regarded as well insulated and historically poised for growth? What will the recovery look like?

• March 12, 2021 By Chelsey Leffet

• Hotel Operations , Development & Construction , Travel & Tourism , Economic Trends and Cycles , COVID-19 , Washington D.C. , District of Columbia , United States , North America

Economy Extended-Stay Hotels Hold Up Best During Q2 2020

HVS compiled the Q2 2020 performance statistics of brands reported by public companies. The data reflect the resiliency of economy, extended-stay brands during the first months of the pandemic.

• September 4, 2020 By Rod Clough , Chelsey Leffet

• Hotel Operations , Travel & Tourism , Economic Trends and Cycles , Hotel Brands , COVID-19 , North America , United States

Federal Per Diem: Fiscal 2020/21 & Historical Trends

This publication provides an overview of upcoming, current, and historical trends in the federal lodging per diem, with a focus on the per-diem rates for the top hotel lodging markets, as defined by STR.

• August 31, 2020 By Chelsey Leffet

• Hotel Operations , Travel & Tourism , Economic Trends and Cycles , COVID-19 , North America , United States

Per Diem Rates: Current & Historical Trends

This publication provides an overview of current and historical trends in the federal lodging per diem, with a focus on the per diem rates for the top hotel lodging markets, as defined by STR.

• October 17, 2019 By Chelsey Leffet

• Hotel Investments & Ownership , Valuations & Market Studies , Travel & Tourism , Economic Trends and Cycles , United States , North America

Market Pulse: Annapolis, MD

Recent hotel transactions show investor confidence in this high-barrier-to-entry market near the major metropolitan areas of Baltimore and D.C. This article illustrates the current conditions and lodging metrics of the Annapolis market.

• April 23, 2018 By Marcus R. Lee , Chelsey Leffet

• Development & Construction , Valuations & Market Studies , Travel & Tourism , Economic Trends and Cycles , Annapolis , United States , Maryland , North America

Key Takeaways: AHLA & AAHOA’s – Legislative Action Summit 2017

AHLA and AAHOA held the annual Legislative Action Summit in May in Washington, DC. to bring hundreds of people together to call on members of Congress regarding issues important to the industry. The various issues are described in this article.

• June 6, 2017 By Chelsey Leffet , Kirby D. Payne

• Asset Management , Food & Beverage , Development & Construction , Architecture & Interior Design , Golf Courses and Clubs , United States

In Focus: Hampton Roads, VA

Though on the verge of an influx of new hotel supply, demand in Hampton Roads has risen in recent years, improving occupancy and allowing hoteliers to command better rates.

• December 14, 2015 By Chelsey Leffet

• Development & Construction , Valuations & Market Studies , Travel & Tourism , Economic Trends and Cycles