This summer has been strong for the U.S. hotel sector, with weekly RevPAR gains averaging near 8.0% in June and early July, cooling slightly into 6.0% to 7.0% in August. Our RevPAR growth forecast reflects 4.5% for 2026 given the expectation that recent growth, partly fueled by World Cup matches and heightened vacation travel, will wane somewhat in the final months of the year.

The summer is off to a roaring start for the U.S. hotel sector, with weekly RevPAR gains averaging roughly 8.0% in June and early July. Our RevPAR growth forecast reflects 4.5% for 2026, which takes into consideration that this recent growth, partly fueled by the World Cup matches, will wane somewhat in the second half of the year.

The U.S. hotel sector continues to show strength, with weekly RevPAR gains averaging 4.0% YTD through May and exceeding 5.0% in recent weeks. Our latest RevPAR growth forecast reflects 3.0% for 2026, which may be on the conservative side if elevated travel trends continue through the summer vacation and fall convention seasons.

The U.S. hotel sector continues to show strength, with weekly RevPAR gains averaging 4.0% YTD through April and exceeding 4.0% in recent weeks. We have updated our RevPAR growth forecast for 2026 from 2.2% to 3.0%, and this may be on the conservative side if elevated travel trends continue through the summer vacation and fall convention seasons.

U.S. hotel performance is posting notable gains compared with 2025 levels, as travel continues to be a priority for many despite persistent inflation, the Middle Eastern conflict, and lackluster job growth. While luxury hotels are posting the greatest RevPAR gains, even economy and midscale hotels are showing occupancy improvement and ADR gains.

U.S. hotel performance is posting notable gains compared with 2025 levels, as travel continues to be a priority for many despite persistent inflation, the Middle Eastern conflict, and longer security lines at airports. While luxury hotels are posting the greatest RevPAR gains, even economy and midscale hotels are showing occupancy improvement (as we expected).

U.S. hotels began 2026 steadily, with flat occupancy and slightly higher ADR for January. As of February, HVS expects modest RevPAR growth in 2026 and stronger gains in 2027 and 2028. Cap rates are trending downward as more distressed assets sell, while transaction activity is slowly gaining momentum, supported by lower interest rates.

Lower inflation, continued job creation, and the anticipated benefits of the recent cut in the federal funds rate provide a foundation for optimism about the U.S. economy. In the lodging sector, as different markets and segments continue to post varying results, we anticipate the overall trend of positive, albeit muted, growth to persist in the near term.

Mixed messages abound these days, comprising some bright spots, some not so bright spots, and some challenges. With no coherent theme, the greatest challenge may be developing a forecast for the industry as a whole. But we are undaunted and herewith present our current expectations for the U.S. lodging industry.

With inflation decelerating, fears of a recession receding, and supply growth muted, the overall outlook for U.S. hotel metrics in 2024 is one of modest, steady growth. The investment market is also showing increased signs of life, as inflationary concerns are diminishing and interest rates are improving modestly.