| |
|
Quotes
| Steve
Rushmore
President and Founder, HVS Global
Hospitality Services
Historical data illustrate that the Manhattan
market is prone to high volatility, as the market incurs strong
declines during recessionary periods, followed by even stronger
gains during the recovery. Abiding by the former dynamic, the
Manhattan market realized the largest RevPAR decline in 2009
among the top 25 markets in the U.S. A significant decrease in
average rate was the major cause of this decline, as local
hoteliers opted to maximize occupancy while facing a noteworthy
expansion in supply. This strategy yielded a strong occupancy
level of over 80% in 2009, despite a roundly 5.0% increase in
supply. Since the fourth quarter of 2009, the market has
illustrated signs of a prospective recovery. Occupancy levels
have consistently trended upward, and RevPAR has been positive
since the beginning of 2010.
Given these trends, HVS estimates that hotel values in the
Manhattan market have bottomed out. Beginning in 2010, we
anticipate that marketwide RevPAR will progressively trend
upward, surpassing its pre-recession high of 2008 by 2013. We
expect hotel values in Manhattan to follow a similar trend,
returning to the previous peak level by 2014; this scenario
assumes that the current recession will not fundamentally change
corporate and transient customers’ travel patterns over the long
term and that financing returns to normal leverage levels.
Overall, the Manhattan market still remains the premier lodging
market in the U.S., given its standing as the world’s financial
capital and status as a prominent leisure destination. |
| |
| Michael
R. Bloomberg
Mayor of the City
of New York
Dear Friends:
It is a great pleasure to welcome all those attending the 32nd Annual
New York University International Hospitality Industry Investment
Conference.
New York City was the most popular tourist destination in the United
States last year, attracting more than 45 million visitors and adding
new jobs in the leisure and hospitality industries. From our world-class
restaurants and shops to the many events taking place every day
throughout the five boroughs, there is more to see and do in New
York City than ever before. That’s why, despite the global
economic downturn, we expect to welcome 50 million annual visitors
by 2012.
Tourism continues to be one of the Big Apple’s most successful
industries, and I applaud everyone who made this event possible
for their vital contributions to our City’s economic and cultural
vitality. On behalf of the City of New York, I offer my best wishes
for an enjoyable and productive conference. |
| |
| Jonathan
Tisch
Chairman & CEO, Loews
Hotels
Even in light of the continuing economic challenges
that are being felt in the United States, as well as many countries
around the world, the travel and tourism industry continues to be
a pillar of strength for New York City’s economy.
And at its core is our city’s lodging industry, which still
boasts one of the highest citywide occupancies in the country, and
provides good jobs for thousands of New Yorkers. |
| |
| George
Fertitta
CEO, NYC
& Company
In early January, New York City announced that
it was the most popular tourist destination in the United States
in 2009, surpassing rival cities such as Los Angeles and Orlando
by welcoming 45.25 million tourists. This accomplishment marked
a first for NYC in nearly 20 years, with its total number of visitors
exceeding projections, declining just 3.9 percent from 2008 versus
the expected 10 percent. 2010 looks to be an even greater year,
with a forecasted 3.2 percent increase in tourism and an expected
46.7 million visitors to New York City. In late March, NYC &
Company announced a two-year comprehensive partnership with American
Airlines consisting of an integrated domestic and international
media campaign, aimed at attracting additional visitors to New York
City and staying on track to meet the Mayor’s mandate to reach
50 million visitors annually by 2012. This year also promises significant
hotel development, with more than 6,700 rooms slated to open in
36 properties, bringing the City’s hotel inventory to nearly
87,000 by year end; these will include several new hotels in Lower
Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens. |
| |
| Mark
Lomanno
President, STR Global
The New York City hotel market has finally begun
its long-awaited performance turnaround. While there is still much
work to be done, the underlying fundamental of any recovery, strong
demand, is on the way back. Through March of this year, the city
has now had six consecutive months of demand improvement when compared
to the same month of the prior year. While the comparisons are certainly
easy, it nonetheless indicates improvement. The next challenge will
be in increasing room rates, which are still well below the levels
reached in mid 2008. To date, room rate recovery has not begun,
and in fact rates are still declining slightly. Hopefully, increased
demand, along with occupancy levels approaching the high 70s, will
begin the room rate recovery process. |
| |
| Lalia
Rach, Ed.D.
Divisional Dean and HVS International Chair
The
Preston Robert Tisch Center for Hospitality, Tourism, and Sports
Management
To paraphrase the lyrics from the song Spinning
Wheel, by Blood, Sweat and Tears, “What goes down, must go
up…” is a good measure for 2010. It will be a year of
incremental recovery for business and consumers. For consumers,
the gradual improvement will depend on the state of employment,
the availability of credit, and the improvement in value of major
assets for these determine the confidence and comfort levels of
travelers and guests. A return by consumers to “old spending
habits” is not realistic in light of the challenges. Post-Great
Recession, the Industry issues that remain include loan maturation
deadlines, cost flow recovery, brand homogenization, and the reset
of the price-value equation. Conventional wisdom which posits the
cyclical nature of Industry recovery is in for a rough ride as “normal”
is anything but. The challenges for consumers and industry will
extend well beyond 2010. |
| |
| Joseph
Spinnato
President & CEO, Hotel
Association of NYC
2009 has proven to be a rather interesting year
for the hotel industry in New York City. While the average occupancy
for 2009 has come in at the 80% range, revenue received by hotels
during that period has been a challenge. The projections for 2010
appear to be somewhat improved over 2009 although some experts are
predicting that this year will be flat. The continuing goal for
our industry here in the City of New York is to continue aggressive
marketing strategies that will continue to lure foreign visitors
to our city.
The Hotel Association of New York City continues to partner with
NYC & Company to insure that these marketing efforts will convince
foreign visitors that New York continues to be an extremely affordable
destination. |
| |
| Michael
C. Pomeranc
Partner, Thompson Hotels
New York: Are Things Getting Better or Are We Getting
Smarter?
New York approached 2010 with some of the greatest risk (and potentially
highest reward) opportunities for the hotel entrepreneur that I
can remember.
Modification of existing assets has become the challenge due to
lingering lackluster performance. Once again, cash is king, and
the limits in the lending market have made acquiring quality assets
in markets with already considerable barriers to entry even more
difficult than before. Despite the abundance of product, the barriers
to entry have caused creative “re-thinking” to be the
most important tool in a developer’s arsenal in order to sustain
viable enterprises from a cash flow perspective. Owners and operators
must be more sensitive and responsive than ever to each other’s
needs to alleviate the difficulties of restarting the growth process.
The travel/tourism sector will always be enamored by the glory and
glamour of New York, and the world’s financial balance (in
trade and currency values) will continue to affect that sector,
and this very tedious balance will continue as always.
The good news, however, is that things are only getting better for
our industry. We have survived the worst and should welcome this
new time of opportunity with open arms, with improved communication
between owners and brands, and with creative approaches to thriving
in this time of change. |
|
Printer
Friendly Version