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Manhattan Forecast
Joseph
Spinnato
President & CEO, Hotel
Association of NYC
2009 has proven to be a rather interesting
year for the hotel industry in New York City. While the average
occupancy for 2009 has come in at the 80% range, revenue received
by hotels during that period has been a challenge. The projections
for 2010 appear to be somewhat improved over 2009 although some
experts are predicting that this year will be flat. The continuing
goal for our industry here in the City of New York is to continue
aggressive marketing strategies that will continue to lure foreign
visitors to our city.
The Hotel Association of New York City continues to partner
with NYC & Company to insure that these marketing efforts
will convince foreign visitors that New York continues to be
an extremely affordable destination.
Based on an analysis of the historical data and a review of proposed
hotels, we have prepared the following forecast for the Manhattan
lodging market. We note that the increases in supply in 2010 and
2011 are based on hotels under construction as of March 2010 and
also factor in anticipated hotel closings during these years.
| Year |
No. of Rooms |
% Change |
Occupied � Rooms |
% Change |
Occupancy |
% Change |
Average Rate |
% Change |
RevPAR� |
% Change |
| 2007 |
65,680 |
� |
20,473,745 |
� |
85.4 |
� |
$297.25 |
� |
$253.86 |
� |
| 2008 |
67,114 |
2.2 |
20,692,202 |
1.1 |
84.5 |
(1.1) |
304.56 |
2.5 |
257.26 |
1.3 |
| 2009 |
70,420 |
4.9 |
20,657,567 |
(0.2) |
80.4 |
(4.9) |
235.12 |
(22.8) |
188.97 |
(26.5) |
| Forecast |
| 2010 |
74,715 |
6.1 |
22,434,118 |
8.6 |
82.3 |
2.4 |
$240.30 |
2.2 |
$197.68 |
4.6 |
| 2011 |
77,629 |
3.9 |
23,645,560 |
5.4 |
83.5 |
1.4 |
259.35 |
7.9 |
216.43 |
9.5 |
| 2012 |
77,947 |
0.4 |
24,142,117 |
2.1 |
84.9 |
1.7 |
285.63 |
10.1 |
242.37 |
12.0 |
| 2013 |
77,947 |
0.0 |
24,238,685 |
0.4 |
85.2 |
0.4 |
319.05 |
11.7 |
271.81 |
12.1 |
| 2014 |
78,025 |
0.1 |
24,287,163 |
0.2 |
85.3 |
0.1 |
338.83 |
6.2 |
288.95 |
6.3 |
Sources: STR Global (historical);
HVS (forecast)
Based on recent trends, we anticipate that the market will bottom out, then begin to recover in 2010. As such, we forecast a healthy increase of 4.6% in RevPAR in 2010. Assuming the continuation of the economic recovery, our forecast indicates three years of consecutive strong growth in RevPAR from 2011 through 2013. As a result, we expect the Manhattan RevPAR to exceed its pre-recession level by 2013.
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