| |
Manhattan Forecast
Joseph Spinnato
President & CEO, Hotel
Association of NYC
The final months of 2008 and the first 3 months of 2009 have
shown that there is a definite negative impact on the hotel
industry in New York City due to the poor economy. As the economic
challenges are global, we are seeing a fall-off in visitors
that we had come to count on. The Hotel Association and NYC
& Company are meeting these challenges by increasing our
marketing efforts and broadcasting to the world that New York
City is now affordable while still being a major and vibrant
attraction. As a result of these efforts, we expect by the start
of the third quarter to see a return of these visitors from
both the domestic and international markets.
Based on an analysis of the historical data and a review of proposed
hotels, we have prepared the following forecast for the Manhattan
lodging market. We note that the increases in supply from 2009
through 2011 are based on hotels under construction as of April
2009.
| Year |
No. of Rooms |
% Change |
Occupied Rooms |
% Change |
Occupancy |
% Change |
Average Rate |
% Change |
RevPAR� |
% Change |
| 2007 |
65,010 |
1.9 |
20,280,476 |
3.0 |
85.5 |
1.1 |
298.16 |
12.8 |
254.83 |
14.0 |
| 2008 |
66,438 |
2.2 |
20,517,880 |
1.2 |
84.6 |
(1.0) |
305.50 |
2.5 |
258.48 |
1.4 |
| Forecast* |
| 2009 |
72,287 |
8.8 |
20,087,005 |
(2.1) |
76.1 |
(10.0) |
$271.90 |
(11.0) |
$207.00 |
(19.9) |
| 2010 |
75,909 |
5.0 |
20,549,006 |
2.3 |
74.2 |
(2.6) |
261.02 |
(4.0) |
193.59 |
(6.5) |
| 2011 |
76,736 |
1.1 |
20,775,045 |
1.1 |
74.2 |
0.0 |
259.72 |
(0.5) |
192.64 |
(0.5) |
| 2012 |
77,120 |
0.5 |
22,063,097 |
6.2 |
78.4 |
5.7 |
280.49 |
8.0 |
219.85 |
14.1 |
| 2013 |
77,506 |
0.5 |
23,188,315 |
5.1 |
82.0 |
4.6 |
308.54 |
10.0 |
252.91 |
15.0 |
| 2014 |
78,281 |
1.0 |
23,883,965 |
3.0 |
83.6 |
2.0 |
339.40 |
10.0 |
283.70 |
12.2 |
| 2015 |
79,455 |
1.5 |
24,481,064 |
2.5 |
84.4 |
1.0 |
359.76 |
6.0 |
303.69 |
7.0 |
| *Forecast prepared in March 2009 |
Sources: Smith Travel Research (historical);
HVS (forecast)
As a result of a significant increase in supply, and in light of
the current economic recession, we forecast overall RevPAR to decline
by roundly 20.0% in 2009. We anticipate that the market will start
turning around by 2012, recording a strong RevPAR increase of 14.1%.
With the continued anticipated economic recovery, we forecast another
double-digit RevPAR increase in 2013 (15.0%), bringing RevPAR to
slightly below the 2008 level.
|
|
Printer
Friendly Version