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Manhattan Operating History and Forecast
Michael R. Bloomberg
Mayor of the City of New
York
Tourism plays an integral role in New York City’s economic vitality.
Our outstanding cultural and social offerings, historic landmarks, and
amazing restaurants provide visitors with experiences they will never
forget. With the support of our thriving hospitality industry, we will
continue to develop and expand, offering people even more reasons to
visit the World’s Second Home.
As mentioned previously, the uncertainties of the war in Iraq and the
negative impact of the SARS epidemic on international travel greatly hampered
the Manhattan lodging market’s performance in the first four months
of 2003. However, market fundamentals started improving in the second
half of the year, and strong RevPAR increases were attained in October
through December of 2003. In view of these historical trends, the expected
year-over-year increases in the first four months of 2004, the continued
recovery of the regional and national economies, a favorable exchange
rate of the Euro against the U.S. dollar, and only moderate supply growth,
we project the marketwide RevPAR to increase by 7.8% in 2004, composed
of a 3.6% growth in occupancy and a 4.0% rise in average rate. As the
national economy continues to recover, we project that by 2006, Manhattan’s
occupancy will reach close to 1999 levels and average rate will return
to 2000 levels.
Based on an analysis of the historical data and a review of proposed
hotels, we have prepared the following forecast for the Manhattan lodging
market.
| Year |
No. of Rooms |
�% Change |
� Occupied Rooms |
% Change |
Occupancy |
% Change |
� Average Rate |
Change |
� RevPAR� |
Change |
|
1987
|
51,785
|
---��
|
14,367,318
|
---��
|
76.0 %
|
---��
|
$114.66
|
---��
|
$87.15
|
---��
|
|
1988
|
51,870
|
0.2 %
|
14,403,588
|
0.3 %
|
76.1
|
0.1 %
|
121.67
|
6.1 %
|
92.56
|
6.2 %
|
|
1989
|
51,724
|
(0.3)
|
13,572,726
|
(5.8)
|
71.9
|
(5.5)
|
132.88
|
9.2
|
95.53
|
3.2
|
|
1990
|
53,348
|
3.1
|
13,853,761
|
2.1
|
71.1
|
(1.0)
|
131.54
|
(1.0)
|
93.59
|
(2.0)
|
|
1991
|
54,090
|
1.4
|
13,204,783
|
(4.7)
|
66.9
|
(6.0)
|
127.14
|
(3.3)
|
85.04
|
(9.1)
|
|
1992
|
55,477
|
2.6
|
13,603,539
|
3.0
|
67.2
|
0.4
|
126.19
|
(0.7)
|
84.78
|
(0.3)
|
|
1993
|
55,426
|
(0.1)
|
14,137,222
|
3.9
|
69.9
|
4.0
|
127.86
|
1.3
|
89.35
|
5.4
|
|
1994
|
55,794
|
0.7
|
15,156,219
|
7.2
|
74.4
|
6.5
|
135.06
|
5.6
|
100.52
|
12.5
|
|
1995
|
56,292
|
0.9
|
15,798,383
|
4.2
|
76.9
|
3.3
|
146.96
|
8.8
|
113.00
|
12.4
|
|
1996
|
56,534
|
0.4
|
16,666,418
|
5.5
|
80.8
|
5.0
|
161.53
|
9.9
|
130.47
|
15.5
|
|
1997
|
57,406
|
1.5
|
17,094,812
|
2.6
|
81.6
|
1.0
|
178.20
|
10.3
|
145.38
|
11.4
|
|
1998
|
58,016
|
1.1
|
17,438,157
|
2.0
|
82.3
|
0.9
|
199.49
|
11.9
|
164.28
|
13.0
|
|
1999
|
59,608
|
2.7
|
17,657,134
|
1.3
|
81.2
|
(1.4)
|
209.52
|
5.0
|
170.04
|
3.5
|
|
2000
|
61,115
|
2.5
|
18,671,091
|
5.7
|
83.7
|
3.1
|
223.75
|
6.8
|
187.28
|
10.1
|
|
2001
|
62,859
|
2.9
|
17,089,561
|
(8.5)
|
74.5
|
(11.0)
|
196.76
|
(12.1)
|
146.56
|
(21.7)
|
|
2002
|
63,501
|
1.0
|
17,354,297
|
1.5
|
74.9
|
0.5
|
186.89
|
(5.0)
|
139.93
|
(4.5)
|
|
2003
|
64,674
|
1.8
|
17,846,423
|
2.8
|
75.6
|
1.0
|
182.53
|
(4.0)
|
138.00
|
(1.4)
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| Forecast |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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2004
|
65,219
|
0.8 %
|
18,649,512
|
4.5 %
|
78.3 %
|
3.6 %
|
$189.83
|
4.0 %
|
$148.72
|
7.8 %
|
|
2005
|
66,327
|
1.7
|
19,395,493
|
4.0
|
80.1
|
2.3
|
206.92
|
9.0
|
165.77
|
11.5
|
|
2006
|
66,592
|
0.4
|
19,783,402
|
2.0
|
81.4
|
1.6
|
223.47
|
8.0
|
181.89
|
9.7
|
|
Sources: Smith Travel Research/HVS International
* Some figures may be subject to small rounding errors
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